A Little Sports Talk

When I launched this site, I had every intention of talking about the business side of sports as well as the financial markets. They don't really intertwine too much but since the business end of things is being evaluated, I figured that both could coexist on the site. Also, a disclaimer: I am a big Boston sports fan and have been since the day I was born. So if my Red Sox talk or my Patriots Banter gets to become too much, then feel free to comment saying such. Will I listen? Probably not but feel free anyhow.

So today as I am listening to WEEI.com through my computer, the buzz and banter, to steal that from Minyanville, was about the sox and the wildcard. First of all, when did we write off the sox and the division? I know the devil dogs have a 4.5 game lead but lets face it...most in Boston have seen that lead before evaporate! The Devil Dogs are indeed a formidable force - they sport the best home record in Baseball and their team pitching stats are near the best in the AL. However, there hitting is mediocre at best and with the losses of Longoria and Crawford occurring this week, that mediocre offense just fell down further. The pitching can only take them so far!

So outside of this conversation, there was a mention that attendance in Tampa for the D-dogs was finally rising. When I heard this, I said, Finally? Maybe it is Tropicana field or maybe it is the Florida market but they just do not want to support a baseball team down there. The attendance figures for the Marlins (they have won 2 titles by the way in the past 11 years) are pitiful. The Rays attendance figures are somewhere in the 18k per game - for a first place team! Now maybe nobody believes in the story. Maybe the pundits are correct and the Rays will fold. That is to assume though that the Sox move up - and based on their ball playing of the past few weeks, that is no guarantee!

A site that may be proving the pundits wrong is CoolStandings.com. They run millions of simulations on each team for the remainder of the season and determine the probability of a given team winning the division, the wild card or the pct chance that each team in the division will make the playoffs. At the moment, they give a 69.5% chance that the Rays will win the division and a 23% chance they will win the wild card. The former is the second best in the AL (Angels are an almost certain lock at 99%) and the latter is the second best (to the sox at 44%). Now with such stats, the obvious does not always happen. At the same time, one could argue that the Rays would have to really screw up to lose the division down the stretch.

At the same time, their schedule in September looks deadly. They have a ton of games on the road against the American League East. The week of Sept 5th through 14th provides them with road games against Toronto, Boston and New York. Since this team is a major home team type of player, this little stretch of games could destroy the fortunes of the Rays. Conversely, a move through this level and they could sell out the remaining amount of their games in 2008.

So will the Rays hold on? Well I am going with Coolstandings and the high probability of success to win the division. I just don't think the Sox will turn it on in time (somewhat listless).