Random Thoughts

I am an avid reader of many things on the web. I take in some things from Hays Advisory (very good material). I read the folks at realmoney.com and minyanville.com. I sort of like the dismal scientist though I think it is too pricey overall. Seekingalpha, who publishes some of my articles, is a fantastic site for information from those on the ground, so to speak. In between, I talk to my friends who are on the street and some other traders who are in their home offices, like myself. Everyone once in a while, I hear a few things that I just don't agree with.

• First, I am hearing that the latest dollar rally is being called deflationary. This is kind of interesting because the dollar is lower year over year which implies inflation. If the dollar rallied another 5 points, that would put it up 3% on the year. What has it fallen over the past five years? Deflationary comes in when the dollar has appreciated 10 or 20%. Not 5%!
• The folks over at minyanville may be leaning toward the bullish side - Harrison said they might be a bit early (like they were withe bearish call a few years ago). Todd Harrison is a great trader and they have a great site over at the minyan but sometime the bear calls are just too much. Perhaps this is a sea change? Too early to say I guess. Buzz and Banter by the way is fantastic!
• A friend of mine, who reads buzz and banter, said that one of the contributors said the "Window is now closed" for financing these financials. Of course, this has been the common refrain before and after this huge rally in the BKX. If Merrill can get stock done at $22 and still be higher today, this tells me the window is very open. Add in a rising dollar and all of a sudden, US assets look like a double whammy - higher nominal values and higher relative values in other countries.
• All the talk lately has been about commodities. Not much mention about stocks. Interesting.
• From a trading standpoint, I am down to one position in the portfolio. I will probably be out of it come Tuesday as I think that might be the high for the short term of this stock market run (correction only though).
  
• I have to say, with their currencies falling, inflation rising and growth sinking, the ECB and BOE are screwed! People say that our US Fed is in trouble. These two are now sporting tight policy with rising inflation! The rising dollar at least offsets rising commodity prices - now the EU and UK are not benefiting from the falling crude price as much because their currencies are sinking!
• Being a sox fan, I have to wonder if Manny was really dogging it the last few weeks with the bat. We always saw that he was doing such in the field or on the base paths but never with his bat. Now he is crushing the NL - give the doldrums of the sox offense over the past month, we could have used such!